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APPLE 245.27 −4.96%
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TESLA 413.49 −5.74%

Automotive Sector Investment Analysis: Global Car Industry Overview – Week 39, 2025

全球汽车市场正在经历转型减速,而非需求崩溃。从各方面的评估来看,电动车(EV)的增长不均,价格竞争非常激烈,关税和变化的激励政策正在重新塑造制造的地点和产品类型。混合动力车作为一个有利可图的过渡选择,正逐渐赢得市场份额,而许多纯电动车项目则被迫考虑经济因素。财务状况的强劲和本地化生产是关键的缓冲因素:资金充裕、产品组合灵活(包括混合动力、电动车和内燃机)的老牌企业能够捍卫利润;而急需资金的竞争者则面临更高的融资和执行风险。软件、先进驾驶辅助系统(ADAS)以及能源/储存依然是重要的选择,但法律和监管审查日益增加。在欧洲和韩国,收入仍然是总回报的重要组成部分,而美国则展现出更高的波动性和更大的分散性。当前的投资环境更倾向于那些能够产生现金流、具备关税对冲能力和可靠成本降低的有纪律的经营者,而不是盲目追求销量的公司。

 

 

区域汽车市场

亚洲市场的差异性最大。中国的规模企业如比亚迪和吉利正在迅速增长,但面临着利润微薄和价格压力的挑战;比亚迪凭借垂直整合和充足的现金储备脱颖而出,而蔚来和小鹏仍在与盈利能力和融资节奏斗争。日本的主要汽车制造商(丰田、斯巴鲁、马自达、本田)拥有充足的现金,并日益向混合动力转型,通过本地化来减轻关税风险和货币波动,虽然日产则因亏损和高杠杆而显得格外突出。韩国的起亚保持了稳健的利润、净现金和高额的分红;现代则面临监管不确定性和股价波动,但仍保持电动车的雄心。

 

美洲市场则倾向于修复利润和软件选择性。特斯拉的流动性和规模支撑着其大胆的人工智能和能源投资,但汽车利润面临压力,法律和治理的隐患加剧了波动性。通用汽车和福特强调有节奏的电动车推出和成本控制,分红作为支撑,但依赖于执行和质量的提升。早期阶段的电动车市场呈现出分化:Rivian的运营和流动性有所改善,但亏损严重;Lucid则因规模不足和严重的负利润而挣扎,尽管有现金流的支持。

 

欧洲在电动车结构变化中平衡收入与执行风险。德国的高端品牌(宝马、奔驰)保持了品牌实力和高收益,但随着电动车推出的加速,盈利压力和杠杆风险也在增加。大众汽车的规模虽大,但面临利润微薄和负杠杆自由现金流的挑战,增加了交付风险。保时捷的品牌依然强劲,但在高分红压力下,盈利和股价却出现下滑。法拉利则是个例外,保持了高端利润和低波动性。沃尔沃汽车则务实地在美国本土化生产,并倾向于混合动力以减轻关税影响,但需要修复单车经济。

 

汽车投资的三大优选

丰田汽车公司 (7203.T)将强大的流动性与务实的转型策略结合起来。强劲的现金流(¥15.97万亿)、稳定的自由现金流和有保障的分红支持其在本地化、软件和多元化动力系统上的持续投资。混合动力车提供了利润稳定性,而电动车经济正在改善,低波动性则缓解了政策风险。三年的上升前景主要依赖于通过本地化降低关税、严谨的资本配置和产品组合升级;而下行风险主要集中在政策持续性而非资产负债表风险。

 

比亚迪股份有限公司 (1211.HK)在车辆、电池和储能方面实现了无与伦比的垂直整合,能够在价格敏感的电动车市场中控制成本并快速迭代。TTM收入达到8225.2亿,季度增长36%,ROE为23.07%,比亚迪拥有规模优势和丰厚的现金储备。短期自由现金流的压力反映了再投资,但海外扩张、运营效率和持续的产品组合改善可能成为重新评级的催化剂,尤其是在价格战缓和或本地化取得进展的情况下。

法拉利 N.V. (RACE)提供了在大众市场电动车价格战中几乎不受影响的高端汽车经济。法拉利的运营利润率为30.74%,净利润率为22.91%,低波动性和适度的杠杆使其能够在不稀释独特性的情况下资助电动性能。混合动力车的推出和高度个性化支持了定价能力和现金转化。关键关注点是推出质量和保持稀缺性;如果执行到位,法拉利的估值溢价和稳定的现金生成能力将在周期中复合增长。

荣誉提名:起亚汽车公司 (000270.KS)因其稳健的利润、净现金和良好覆盖的高分红;斯巴鲁公司 (7270.T)因其保守的资产负债表和有节奏的电动化推进;特斯拉公司 (TSLA)因其软件/能源选择性和流动性,如果自主驾驶和服务货币化取得进展。

 

汽车投资风险的三大劣选

Lucid Group, Inc. (LCID)面临规模不足和严重负利润(−247% 利润;−309% 运营)以及高额现金消耗,尽管现金余额还不错。转向低价车型旨在提高利用率,但推出、成本降低和需求转化的执行风险很高。如果没有快速的毛利改善和清晰的自我融资路径,稀释和波动风险将持续存在。

 

NIO Inc. (NIO)交付量有所改善,但利润严重为负,流动性紧张(流动比率0.84)需要新的股权融资。中国市场的竞争、不断变化的激励措施和高额的营运资金需求加剧了执行风险。三年的结果取决于将毛利润转化为可持续的营业利润并稳定融资;若出现挫折,可能会引发更多的融资需求和持续的波动。

Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings plc (AML.L)杠杆率高,流动性适中且利润为负。尽管EBITDA和经营现金流为正,但再融资和执行风险依然严峻,较小的流通股本加剧了股价波动。实现自我融资的路径需要持续的利润提升和自由现金流的反转;在那之前,股权对信贷条件高度敏感。

关注风险:大众汽车集团 (VOW3.DE)因其利润微薄和负杠杆自由现金流,面临着沉重的电动车/软件支出;Rivian Automotive, Inc. (RIVN)因深度亏损和执行风险,尽管运营现金流改善且流动性强;保时捷汽车公司 (P911.DE)因盈利压力、高分红和股价下滑,亟需改善订单势头。

 

汽车行业的关键主题

混合动力车作为利润桥梁正在获得动力。丰田、宝马、沃尔沃等公司正在倾向于混合动力车,以稳定利润,同时电动车的成本曲线在改善,激励措施也在转变。这种混合动力的复兴是一个在其他情况下通缩的电动车定价环境中的关键盈利缓冲。

 

本地化是关键的关税对冲手段。丰田和沃尔沃强调在终端市场附近进行生产,以减轻贸易政策风险,而美国和欧盟的政策不确定性正在迫使整个行业重新调整投资组合和产能。

软件、ADAS(高级驾驶辅助系统)和能源是汽车之外的杠杆。特斯拉的货币化路径、宝马与高通的合作以及Rivian与大众的合作都突显了向软件堆栈和合作伙伴关系的更广泛转变。对驾驶辅助功能的监管和法律审查正在上升,影响着推出节奏和货币化。

资本纪律和现金转化定义了赢家。流动性强且分红有保障的公司(如起亚、奔驰、宝马)能够在波动中进行投资;而那些持续负自由现金流的公司(如大众在集团层面、Lucid、早期电动车)必须证明其支出的回报。垂直整合(如比亚迪)和质量/成本执行(如福特、通用)是利润修复的核心。

价格战和产品组合管理仍然至关重要。中国的竞争对电动车定价施加压力,迫使 incumbents 优先考虑盈利产品线、混合动力车和有序的激励措施。产品节奏、成本降低和货币管理将在未来三年内将稳定增长的公司与依赖资本的故事股区分开。



本文不构成投资建议。投资股票存在风险,您在做出任何财务决策前应进行自己的研究。请注意,本评论仅基于本杂志中关注的汽车公司(见金融部分的股票)。